Australia: Electric vehicle sales to dominate new car market within two decades, says Energeia study

Posted 25 June 2018

Modelling from research firm Energeia for ARENA and the CEFC predicts a surge in the uptake of EVs as technological advances cut costs and increase drive-distances.

Under all scenarios modelled, EVs make up all new vehicles sales by the mid-2040s, the report states.

In addition, EVs could have the same driving range capabilities as diesel or petrol-fuelled cars by 2024. This so-called “range anxiety” is considered one of the biggest factors influencing the uptake of EVs in Australia.

By 2024, fast charging networks will allow EV owners to charge a 100 kWh battery in just five minutes for around $11, the study claims.

It also reports that 99 per cent of trips made in Australia total less than 50 km or 100 km return — well within range of EVs on the market today.

One EV manufacturer, Tesla, has released a nation-wide EV charging station map. The map allows owners to navigate around Australia on electric power alone.

Of course, EV owners with solar power and battery systems like Tesla Powerwall 2 can charge their cars overnight with energy stored during the day.

As more EVs hit the roads, public charging networks will become vital. The research finds up to 28,500 fast-charging service stations will be needed around the country by 2040.

This would add 2.8 GW in demand for electricity and drive an private investment bonanza worth $1.7 billion, according to ARENA CEO Ivor Frischknecht.

“This report shows EVs will soon be able to compete with petrol alternatives on cost and range.”

He added that using renewable energy like solar power to at EV charging stations was an exciting prospect.

“Charging EVs with renewables is particularly exciting for us at ARENA. Being a battery with wheels, they have potential to support the grid as more of our energy comes from renewables.

Electric vehicle sales tipped to boom worldwide

Energeia’s findings are echoed by a recent Bloomberg report. It predicts that the 1.1 million EVs currently on the road globally will rise to 11 million by 2025, then surge to 30 million by 2030, as costs fall and EVs reach price parity with internal combustion vehicles.

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